Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 218.897775 267.436947 328.070267 410.850476 523.311126 6.744541e+02 8.996525e+02
2025-05-25 158.711159 211.558081 286.082635 403.389683 592.713187 9.053586e+02 1.509515e+03
2025-06-01 125.368361 176.720986 255.165789 391.516543 641.661523 1.129445e+03 2.321001e+03
2025-06-08 103.875265 152.456165 231.167301 378.780647 679.029994 1.354593e+03 3.417612e+03
2025-06-15 96.433975 147.778290 236.472010 417.698101 834.248906 1.958225e+03 6.680264e+03
2025-06-22 86.009118 135.804201 225.791091 421.496939 915.245843 2.460903e+03 1.121137e+04
2025-06-29 78.984997 128.300917 221.370219 436.646062 1034.369610 3.237316e+03 2.145845e+04
2025-07-06 71.362747 118.378525 210.034081 432.301375 1098.312994 3.917557e+03 3.794578e+04
2025-07-13 68.955146 117.747995 217.280573 475.565434 1342.716481 5.930711e+03 1.256362e+05
2025-07-20 66.262925 116.075923 221.886747 514.088429 1608.671689 8.947404e+03 6.502596e+05
2025-07-27 63.171059 113.093211 222.902822 543.309972 1871.604670 1.322086e+04 1.027325e+07
2025-08-03 59.732586 108.881339 220.193616 560.650437 2105.514351 1.886936e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 55.771270 103.266344 213.625979 565.702278 2303.108918 2.640256e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 51.529308 96.537932 203.161042 554.486988 2407.198637 3.422477e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 47.528587 89.882151 191.787351 536.522983 2458.226465 4.252754e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 43.959330 83.805277 180.972374 517.317751 2487.445881 5.201411e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 43.567373 84.922679 189.599168 576.277336 3197.432039 1.293597e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 41.386017 81.595424 185.355673 582.074103 3498.627706 2.230139e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 39.904835 79.766893 185.078016 605.261996 4034.595699 5.315055e+05 NaN
2025-09-28 37.736142 76.041810 178.650107 598.600184 4254.850017 9.870669e+05 NaN
2025-10-05 37.534523 77.130247 186.847573 665.347384 5600.650442 1.428690e+07 NaN
2025-10-12 37.046372 77.439500 192.763255 725.524720 7204.129342 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 36.224496 76.794579 195.537232 771.622326 8906.407769 NaN NaN